Optimism Abuse
PG was spending a hot summer afternoon indoors. As background noise for multi tasking, he found a video discussion about optimism. The positivity police have harassed PG about negative attitude for years and years. Maybe listening to this discussion will help.
One of the talkers is a lady named Tali Sharot, promoting a book, The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain. She is an academic, at University College London. She does studies about, er, ah, something. In one study, “we had people imagine medical conditions, headache, break your arm, and so on… signalling how bad you thought that was going to be.”
One way to get a headache is to listen to this BHTV discussion. Dr. Sharot is talking on the phone, and the sound is horrible. All the optimism in the world is not going to make her voice any more pleasant. Then she starts to talk about the choices people have to make in these studies. Should I take a job in London, or in Paris? Should I take a vacation in Greece, or in Thailand? PG began to suspect that the target audience did not include him.
Some of the amazon reviews are not kind. not for me June 11, 2011 Patricia R. Andersen “redheaded booklover” (MD USA) This review is based on what I have seen and experienced. It is entirely possible that I just know cranky and depressed people, but somehow I don’t think so. But I did have the “irrational optimism” that the longer I read this book, the better I would like it. Needless to say, I didn’t. … The book doesn’t work for me. Other people might enjoy it, but I did not. I’d like to get back the time I feel that I have wasting by reading this book. I would not recommend this book to anyone, but again, your mileage may varry.
Compltete jibberish July 31, 2011 larry white (Bryan, OH USA) C is completel jibberish and not backed by facts ir reason. The author has failed to deliver scientific backup for her claims. No wonder we sre a mess as a country. She claims obama is optimistic? We are all optimistic when we are getting our way but roadblocks hae shown obama to be a very ugly angry man. I have requested a refund
Out of a misguided sense of fairness, PG decided to listen to a TED talk, Tali Sharot: The optimism bias. The lady is good at sales. The sound of the TED talk is much better than the BHTV discussion.
The only trouble is the content of the talk. PG made it through 12 minutes of an 18 minute talk. Dr. Sharot throws questionable ideas out, then moves on to the next faulty assumption. Little evidence for her claims is offered. She uses misleading studies and statements. Evidently, Dr. Sharot is optimistic that people will believe what she says.
An example is cancer. PG lost both parents to this condition. This is an emotional subject. PG suspects that talk about an “average likelihood of suffering from cancer” is both meaningless and cruel. Anyone who knows how statistics can be manipulated, also knows that “average” is a weasel word. If you do contract cancer, your chances of suffering are close to 100%
This is her closing paragraph. It is edited, out of mercy for those with better things to do than read blogs. It is helpful that penguins are an exotic species. Few listeners know much about penguins. “Because if you’re one of these pessimistic penguins up there who just does not believe they can fly, you certainly never will… But if you’re an optimistic penguin who believes they can fly, but then adjusts a parachute to your back just in case things don’t work out exactly as you had planned, you will soar like an eagle, even if you’re just a penguin.” Pictures today are from “The Special Collections and Archives,Georgia State University Library”.
Be Kind To Your Enemy
Did Jesus say to “Love your enemy”? Some believe this, and do it. Some claim to believe this, and practice the opposite. There are others who claim to love their enemies, but you have to understand what they mean by it. It can be very confusing.
PG went to a source for documentation. Oh, the blessed conjunction of copy paste with public domain. When PG entered enemy (singular) in the search engine, 100 verses came up. When the request was made plural (enemies), 237 entries popped up. The last mention of enemies is Revelation 11:12 “And they heard a great voice from heaven saying unto them, Come up hither. And they ascended up to heaven in a cloud; and their enemies beheld them.” Loving your enemies does not include bringing them to heaven with you. There is also the star of the show.
Matthew 5:44 “But I say unto you, Love your enemies, bless them that curse you, do good to them that hate you, and pray for them which despitefully use you, and persecute you;.
There is scholarly debate about what Jesus did, or did not, say. The words available to modern man have been copied by hand, edited, translated, and interpreted. PG does not know Aramaic from Alabama. Like anyone else, PG can only read and listen, and think for himself.
In a sense it does not matter what Jesus “really” said. The cult of Jesus Worship is going to believe what it wants. More important, it is going to practice what it wants. As far as the difference between what Jesus “really” said and what his believers say and do…they can explain.
What follows is a humble suggestion. Maybe the translators and scribes got it wrong. Maybe Jesus did not say to love your enemy. Maybe what Jesus said was to show kindness to everyone. This is a practice thing, rather than a belief thing.
It is not as much fun to be nice to someone, as it is to scream about life after death. Kindness does not need to be justified by a quote from a magic book. You just need to do it.
Pictures are from Gwinnett County. This is a repost.
Hiroshima 69 Years Later
At 8:15 am, August 6, 1945, Hiroshima got nuked. It was the start of a new era. Since Japan is 13 hours ahead of Georgia, and standard time was used, the literal anniversary is 8:15 pm, August 5.
Tsutomu Yamaguchi was working in Hiroshima when the bomb hit. He survived, and found a train to take hime to his home town, Nagasaki.
The device dropped on Hiroshima, the Little Boy, had an estimated force of 13 kilotons of Trinitrotoluene, or TNT. A kiloton of TNT is roughly a cube whose sides are ten meters. This device is fairly tiny compared to many of the warheads developed since. Many of the modern appliances are measured in megatons, or millions of tons of TNT. The Soviet Union had a bomb with a capacity of 50 megatons, or 4,000 times the size of the Little Boy.
The largest weapon tested by The United States is the Castle Bravo. This device destroyed Bikini Atoll in the Pacific. The two piece swimsuit was named for this island. The Castle Bravo device had a yield of 15 megatons of TNT. This is roughly 1,000 times the power of the Little Boy.
The decision to drop the bomb has long been controversial. There are a lot of factors and gray areas, and the issue does not lend itself to sound bite solutions. The conventional wisdom is that Japan surrendered because of the nuclear attack. This meant the war was shortened by at least a year, there was no invasion of Japan, and many lives were saved. PG is scared by the moral calculus involved in a decision like this….do 100,000 civilian deaths prevent the deaths of 500,000 soldiers? PG suspects that even G-d herself would lose sleep over that one.
There is also evidence that the bomb was not needed. Japan was whipped in August 1945. The air raids were conducted in daylight with little resistance. A debate was going on in the Japanese government on whether to continue the fight.
An event happened the day between Hiroshima, and Nagasaki, which influenced the Japanese decision to surrender. The Soviet Union had agreed to help the United States with the war against Japan. On August 8, The Soviet Union invaded Japanese occupied Manchuria. There are indications that Japan knew the fight was hopeless at this point, and would rather surrender to The United States than The Soviet Union. This is one of the gray areas that never seems to be mentioned.
The United States wanted the war to end quickly for obvious reasons, and a few subtle ones. America did not want to share the spoils of Japanese war with The Soviet Union. There were already tensions between the two allies, and the cold war was not far off. Many felt The United States used the Little Boy as a warning to The Soviet Union.
When you get your moral software out, you might want to figure in the effect of opening the nuclear Pandora’s box. Would the nuclear bomb have been developed by other countries if America had not led the way? The science is not that complicated…after all, America hit paydirt with the Manhattan Project fairly quickly. Nonetheless, there is karma involved in using a terrible new device on a civilian population. The United States started the wind of the arms race, and has yet to feel the whirlwind.
This is a repost. The pictures are from The Library of Congress. Ansel Adams took pictures of Japanese Americans, in a World War Two internment camp. The ladies in the bridge game are Aiko Hamaguchi, Chiye Yamanaki, Catherine Yamaguchi, and Kazoko Nagahama.
Sub Human Numb Nuts
Think Progress should know better. They published a story about the remarks of a has been guitar player. This person recently referred to his critics as “sub human numb nuts”, which is the name we will use today. His name is mentioned too often already.
SH Nuts was discussing a subject which receives way too much attention. One would think that SH Nuts is a publicity whore, who enjoys saying outrageous things for the sake of being noticed. The pain that millions of Americans feel over this subject is of no concern to SH Nuts, or Think Progress.
In a perfect world, SH Nuts would be ignored. If Think Progress was not selling advertising for this Nunn Sense nonsense, they might not publish this hurtful garbage. But, look at who is sponsoring this disgusting piece. Michelle Nunn. She is running for the U.S. Senate in Georgia.
To be fair, Ms. Nunn might not have much control over where her ads are placed. Or maybe she does. The fact is, she is enabling a thoughtless attention grab by Think Progress and SH Nuts. This does not help to make America a better place. Pictures by The Library of Congress.
Heart Brain Gut
There is a bit of commodity wisdom. you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain.” Credit, or blame, for this morsel is usually given to Winston Churchill. Others say it was George Bernard Shaw, or Benjamin Disraeli.
A French politician, François Guizot has what may be the oldest attribution. “N’être pas républicain à vingt ans est preuve d’un manque de cœur ; l’être après trente ans est preuve d’un manque de tête.” “Not to be a republican at 20 is proof of want of heart; to be one at 30 is proof of want of head.”
In the embedded graphic, the sixty year old’s possession is a gut. This would apply to the famously corpulent Winston Churchill, who was sixty in 1934. At the time he was a forgotten politician, disgraced by his blundering in the Great War. Other pictures are from “The Special Collections and Archives,Georgia State University Library”.
There is a page at the Churchill Centre website for Quotes Falsely Attributed . It includes this gem. “”The only traditions of the Royal Navy are rum, sodomy and the lash.” Churchill’s assistant, Anthony Montague-Browne said that although Churchill had not uttered these words, he wished he had.”
Sochi Olympic Boycott
The Russian Federation recently Putin put in some tasteless regulations about homosexuals. The knee jerk reaction of some is to boycott something Russian. The 2014 Winter Olympics are scheduled to be held in Russia. Some say there should be a rainbow hued boycott. A look at recent history makes one wonder if this is really a good idea.
In 1979, Russia was the dominant republic in the Soviet Union. On December 24, 1979, with possible provocation from the United States, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan. A war ensued, with many women and children killed by the invading army.
The 1980 Olympics were held in Moscow, the Soviet Capitol. The United States decided to protest the invasion of Afghanistan by boycotting the Moscow Olympics. To get even, the Soviet Union boycotted the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles.
The American boycott had little impact on the war in Afghanistan. American arms shipments to the rebel forces did have an impact on the war. The Soviet army was defeated, and the Soviet Union collapsed soon afterwards.
After the Soviets left, the rebels had weapons left over. The rebels became the Taliban, and Al Queda. The result was 911, ruinous wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and economic hardship. Is this what happens when you boycott Russia? Pictures from The Library of Congress.
Lies Darn Lies Statistics
In a recent survey, 78.7% percent of the respondents agree with the statement “Statistics can be trusted to give an accurate description of the facts”.
Statistics are a part of modern life. Numbers tell us who is expected to win, who is expected to lose, and how many men wear a tie. Statistics are often misleading, or an outright lie. And yet, people believe statistics. (The middle three letters of believe are lie).
Talk about statistics is little better. Mark Twain gets the credit/blame for popularizing the phrase, “lies, damn lies, and statistics”. According to Wikipedia , Mr. Clemens may have been mistaken. “Twain popularized the saying in “Chapters from My Autobiography”, published in the North American Review in 1906. “Figures often beguile me,” he wrote, “particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which case the remark attributed to Disraeli would often apply with justice and force: ‘There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.'”…”The term was popularised in the United States by Mark Twain (among others), who attributed it to the 19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli (1804–1881): “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” However, the phrase is not found in any of Disraeli’s works and the earliest known appearances were years after his death.”
Mr. Twain was in the twilight of his career, and angry at aggressive militarism. Why would he would give credit/blame for a phrase to a conservative Prime Minister of England, dead twenty five years?
When PG took English101, the teacher was an inspiring lady named Ann Peets. Between stories of Faulkner and comma splices, she contributed this gem. ” The best way to win an argument is to use statistics. The best way to use statistics is to make them up. ”
In 1954, a bestselling book came out, “How to Lie with Statistics .” The premise was that the pros knew the tricks, and the public has a right to self defense. There are numerous examples of the ways that you can lie with numbers just like you lie with words. Calculator lips don’t move.
One word to watch out for is average . The three most popular types are mean, median, and mode. Mean is the one most people think of as average…you add all the figures up, and divide by the number of entries. In median, you line up the entries in numeric value, and choose the entry in the middle. In mode, the number that the most entries identify with is the average. Any one of these three can be called average, and yet none might describe the typical entry.
HT to Millard Fillmore’s Bathtub for attributing the LDL&S quote to Mr. Disraeli. MFB was talking about global warming denial, a cesspool of lies and statistics. Pictures are from The Library of Congress. These pictures were taken by Ansel Adams at a relocation camp for Japanese Amercans during World War II. Pictures of Mark Twain were recently posted. This is a repeat repost.
Changes In Modern Life
Old people like to talk about things that were better back then. PG is going to talk about some things that are better today. This is a repost.
During the Vietnam war, there was talk about “back our boys in Vietnam”. In the current war in Babylon, the troops are an integrated fighting force of men and women. You do not hear these brave people referred to as “boys”.
A person who goes into combat, to kill or be killed, is not a boy. He is a man, or a woman. This is an improvement over the way things used to be. We still have wars, and have to refer to soldiers as something. Mankind is a work in progress.
A second way society has improved is the attitude towards cigarettes. In older times, almost everyone smoked, and they lit up wherever, and whenever, they wanted. No one asked for permission. Today, people routinely go outside to smoke.
One way in which our attitudes about cigarettes is changing can be seen in the way two presidents are treated by the press. Franklin Roosevelt was never photographed with his leg braces, or struggling to walk. Many people did not know he was crippled. However, his cigarette holder was a part of his image. He was photographed with that constantly. Has ANYONE seen a picture of Barack Obama smoking?
The election of a dark skinned man as POTUS brings us to our final issue of the day, racial (and other) slurs. It is just not considered polite to use insulting terms that refer to race, religion, national origin, etc. etc. (PG got an email at work once cautioning about discussing hair color.) In many ways, this is like the thing with cigarettes…people have not changed the overall attitudes, they just go outside.
Political correctness can be a nuisance. The excesses are well known. However, the basic concept of having concern for the feelings of others is a good idea. Things are different in 2013. Pictures for this discourse are from The Library of Congress.
He Lucky I’m A Christian
Rachel Jeantel, the friend of Trayvon Martin, gave a television interview recently. She said, referring to defense attorney Don West, “He lucky I’m a christian.” (5:26 in interview) It is tough to understand what she meant. An outburst, in a courtroom full of armed guards, would not have hurt Mr. West. Such an outburst would have done even more damage to the state’s case against George Zimmerman.
This comment brought PG back to an incident at Redo Blue. There was a person there, known here as the Bully For Jesus (BFJ.) This man had a hair trigger temper, and would use Jesus to hurt people. After seven years working closely with BFJ, PG sees Jesus as a source of abuse.
In this incident, BFJ heard PG say something to the store manager. “Does anyone adjusting the thermostat ask if their neighbor is comfortable?” BFJ was offended, and went off on PG. “You should thank G-d for Jesus. If it wasn’t for Jesus, I would have hurt you.”
Pictures are from “The Special Collections and Archives,Georgia State University Library”.
Justice Or Vengeance
A jury in Florida rendered a verdict Saturday night. Some are not happy with this ruling. They were looking for the courts to punish the defendant. To many, justice has fallen through the crack.
The truth is that we have trials for a reason. The howling mob, demanding a pound of flesh, is often mistaken. The system exists to protect people from an unjust prosecution. The mobs have not sat in the courtroom, and listened to the evidence. They have not had to make a decision. It is easy to monday morning quarterback a jury, but tough to be on one. Those six women should be thanked for their service, not told to commit suicide.
Some are urging the federal government to prosecute under hate crime laws. This is where Uncle Sam is not happy with the local ruling, and brings his own charges. This is also known as double jeopardy. It is not a good idea. One trial is enough.
Many of the people demanding government sponsored vengeance are Jesus worshipers. This is the man that Pontius Pilate said had done nothing wrong. The crowd shouted Pontius Pilate down. The crowd bellowed Crucify Him, Crucify Him. Pictures are from The Library of Congress.
Compounding Pharmacy
The Associated Press has obtained E-mails from the state of Georgia about copping execution drugs. These substances are intended for use on Warren Hill, and others to follow. “Georgia Department of Corrections emails obtained by The Associated Press through an open records request make it clear that the state is using a compounding pharmacy to mix a doctor-prescribed dose of pentobarbital for Hill. The names of the sender and recipient of the emails are redacted, but it is clear from an email signature that one person is a corrections employee and the other person appears to be a doctor.”
“I spoke with the compounding pharmacist earlier today and I wanted to relay some instructions he gave regarding the prescription,” the corrections employee wrote in an email dated Monday. “Along with the patient name, he also needs their birthday and social security number. I will be happy to forward this information along to you when you are preparing to write the prescription.” Another email from Tuesday provides the relevant information for Hill and says the Department will need six 50-milliliter syringes of pentobarbital.
It is not known who the Doctor, or the Pharmacy, is. … “a Georgia state law says that medical professionals cannot have their licenses challenged or suspended for participating in a court-ordered execution. It is not clear what doctor is writing the prescription for the pentobarbital for Hill’s execution, and it’s not clear what pharmacy or pharmacist will mix it. A law passed by the Georgia Legislature classifies the name of any person or entity who participates in an execution as a “confidential state secret,” off-limits for release to the public. That includes any company that “manufactures, supplies, compounds, or prescribes the drugs.”
PG had never heard of a compounding pharmacy until last week. A google search shows quite a few in the Atlanta area. Here is what one such pharmacy says. “Pharmacists have been preparing drugs for patients long before manufacturing came into existence. This process is simply called “compounding.” Compounding is “the extemporaneous preparation of a special medication for a patient’s unique condition pursuant to a doctor’s specific formulated order (prescription).” The pharmacist’s ability to make a “Tailor-made” prescription affords the physician the ability to prescribe a medication better targeted, in his/her opinion, to a patient’s specific need. Contrary to what is sometimes assumed, each individual patient is different in his/her biological and chemical makeup. In the complex world of body chemistry we are all a bit different. Compounding affords the physician/pharmacist the ability to provide exceptional and very specific medicine that is more suitable and individualized for a given patients unique condition.
There are many reasons your doctor may provide you with a compounded prescription. 1- A dosage form (tablet vs. capsule vs. liquid) may be required or preferred by a patient where it may not exist. The pharmacist can change this dosage form. 2- A Particular medication strength may not be made by the manufacturer but can be provided thru the compounding process. 3- Some products have fillers or binders (inert ingredients) that cause allergic reactions to some patients. Compounding with the raw drug allows the pharmacist to NOT use those particular allergic causing materials. 4- Flavoring medications “to taste” for children and adults is a common practice.”
Compounding pharmacies have “come under scrutiny after a deadly meningitis outbreak was linked to contaminated injections made by a Massachusetts compounding pharmacy. The FDA considers compounding pharmacy products unapproved drugs and does not verify their safety or effectiveness.” It is not known if this applies to executions.
In a rare display of respect for state’s rights, the FDA usually does not deal with drugs used for executions. It is not known whether the reputed pentobarbital will be tested for purity before it is used to poison Warren Hill. It is a secret drug, prescribed by a secret doctor, from a secret compounding pharmacy. Rumors that the secret pharmacy will supply the state with “six 50-milliliter syringes of” Drano cannot be confirmed or denied.
UPDATE On Monday, July 15, we got this story: Fulton judge Gail Tusan stays Warren Hill’s execution. A hearing was scheduled for Thursday, July 18. At the hearing, it was learned that “the prison paid 5-thousand dollars for 6 (50ML) syringes of execution drug, Pentobarbital.” Judge Tusan granted a stay of execution for Warren Hill. “Judge Tusan: the Georgia law “unconstitutionally limits” #WarrenHill’s access to courts and his Eighth Amendment rights.” The state is expected to appeal the decision. Pictures are from “The Special Collections and Archives,Georgia State University Library”.
Kill Warren Hill
The motto of the State of Georgia is Wisdom, Justice, and Moderation. Sometimes, what they practice is Wisdom, Justice, in Moderation. One of these times is the plan to poison Warren L. Hill, Jr.
The focus of the controversy this week is whether or not Mr. Hill is mentally retarded. This post is not going to focus on whether the IQ is 70 or 71. This post is going to deal with other issues. These issues are summarized by a comment made at Peach Pundit recently.
1- Does anyone know why the State is so hell bent on executing him? It seems like whenever the State wants to waste someone, they let nothing stand in their way. The money spent on lawyers, fighting for the blood lust of the State, could be better spent on a new football stadium. 2- Has the issue of where the State is going to get the drugs to waste Mr. Hill been resolved? The manufacturer of pentobarbital does not want their product used for executions. There has been talk of the State using a pharmacy to concoct a special order drug to kill Mr. Hill. If a private citizen did this, to have a party, he would be in trouble. If the State wants to do this, to kill a man, then apparently that is OK.
The poisoning of Warren Hill has been scheduled before. A few months ago, he was given a pre-execution ativan, and fed a final meal. Then the reprieve came, and he went back into waiting. When the State of Georgia decides to execute someone, they do not give up. They have spent thousands of dollars on lawyer work, fighting for their desire to execute a mentally challenged man. The State of Georgia is broke, They could spend that money better in many ways. Why is poisoning Warren Hill such a priority?
Mr. Hill is African American. So are many of the men on death row, many with worse crimes than Mr. Hill. The last man executed by Georgia was white. The state seems to execute a white man for every black man. While racial inequality can never be ruled out in Georgia, it is probably not a factor here.
Georgia uses a method of execution tastefully known as lethal injection. Currently, that means an intentional overdose of one substance. Before the supply expired, the state used pentobarbital. The manufacturer of this substance does not want it used for executions, and has taken steps to prevent this from happening. The state is going to have to be creative. Here is one possibility. “There has been some indication that some states may turn to compounding pharmacies to get pentobarbital. Such pharmacies custom-mix solutions, creams and other medications in doses or forms that generally aren’t commercially available.”
When the Supreme Court approved poisoning as a method of execution, it approved the “Kentucky Protocol”. This is a three drug “cocktail”. States have been recently going for the intentional overdose of pentobarbital, which, truth be told, may be more humane than the three drug cocktail. The problem is that the drug of choice is no longer available. Is using a mystery drug, from a secret source, really wise and just? Is Georgia Smart Enough To Kill People?
And it is a secret source. “The Georgia Legislature in March passed a bill that would make the identities of suppliers and makers of its lethal-injection drug a “state secret.” The bill, designed to shield companies from harassment from death-penalty opponents, was signed into law last month by GOP Gov. Nathan Deal. “
A branch of the federal government, the F.D.A.,is supposed to monitor the safety and efficiency of drugs. Does this apply when these drugs are used to intentionally kill? “The safety and efficacy of all drugs has to be approved by the FDA, but once pharmaceuticals are approved for any purpose, it is up to physicians to determine to whom and for what reasons they will prescribe them. … The FDA-approved uses for pentobarbital include short-term treatment for insomnia and seizure control for patients with epilepsy. … It is also not FDA-approved for use in executions or for the use of anesthesia, but it’s not clear the FDA believes that’s its business.”
Here is the original chamblee54 post on Warren Hill. Pictures are from Gwinnett County.
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