Chamblee54

On August 1, 1914, war was breaking out in Europe. The British foreign secretary said to a friend, “The lamps are going out all over Europe, we shall not see them lit again in our life-time”. That is what yesterday morning felt like, waking up to the news that the war had started.
It is an old truism that in war, the first casualty is the truth. Propaganda has long been a major player in the West Asian conflicts. X is full of thesis, antithesis, and synthesis. Below is a very small sample of the news and opinions available. It should be noted that these opinions belong to the tweeters. I am personally taking in as much as I can stand, and trying to make sense of it all.
@dccommonsense “In general the problem the U.S. has in its Middle Eastern interventions is always underestimating the complexity and powder keg-like conditions in these countries. Instead of empowering a side we favor we usually open up a Pandora’s Box of violent Murphy’s Law outcomes instead.” … Dan Carlin has been relatively quiet since October 7. The other prominent history podcaster, Darryl Cooper, has been outspoken about the various wars, and has caught hell for it.
@RaniaKhalek “Trump unleashed Hell. Bombs are falling on the entire Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz is almost closed. All sides are digging in. It’s all about who cries mercy first. The U.S. and Israel murdered the restrained Iranian leadership that was invested in endless negotiation. What comes next will probably understandably be more hawkish bc strategic patience doesn’t work. · Even before these decapitations they decided to go all out. This is for survival so escalation against a rogue empire is the only option. They’re even hitting Oman, the one gulf country to condemn the U.S.-Israel attack while playing a constructive and mediating role. · There’s no going back now, the strategy is to regionalize the conflict in hopes the GCC demands an end. It’s a huge gamble but the Iranians were cornered into it by the U.S. and Israel. And if this draws out global shipping and oil markets will be impacted. Meanwhile, Team Trump is dumb and insane. They don’t understand Iran, they suck at geopolitical maneuvering and think they can do regime change with overwhelming air power alone. · This was all unnecessary but here we are, tens of millions of people afraid and unable to leave their homes. The end game is unclear. There are no good options. This is what people warned about. More reckless idiocy from the nuclear armed pedophilic class in Washington.”
@_ZachFoster “”You do not need to close the strait. You just need to make it uninsurable.” This is called Iranian “economic statecraft,” as U.S. Secretary of state Scott Bessent would say.”
@DanMKervick I don’t think the absence of protest in the US is due to Americans being pacified. I suspect it’s actually because they have an increasingly accurate undertanding of the way the world works and know that protests have rarely proven to be an effective form of resistance. /1 The right to petition the government or demonstrate one’s opinion doesn’t mean much if the government doesn’t care what most people think. It’s just a way of expressing the desire for resistance without actually resisting. //2 @DrBrianReid Give Xanax credit too.
Armchair Warlord @ArmchairW Well. War with Iran it is. I had hoped it would not come to this juncture, but here we are. Some thoughts after the day’s fighting. · 1. As an initial matter, the Trump Administration’s actions here are aggression and perfidy. This attack on Iran was unprovoked and occurred during negotiations in which the Iranians were by all indications willing to make significant and lasting concessions to assuage American and Israeli concerns about the peaceful nature of their nuclear program. Soon enough we will regret setting this precedent. · 2. US and Israeli forces appear to have achieved tactical surprise by launching a limited decapitation strike first against senior figures in the Iranian regime. The measure of performance of the strike – did they hit what and whom they intended to hit – is currently the subject of… significant debate. The measure of effectiveness of the strike – did it dislocate the Iranian defensive response or cause panic and infighting in the regime – was negative. The Iranian military deliberately cleared what was at the time an airspace crowded with civilian traffic, brought air defenses online, and began launching retaliatory strikes about an hour later. · 2A. The Iranians only brought their air defenses online after their airspace was clear of civilian traffic, suggesting they felt confident in their ability to absorb a limited first strike and also indicating that they very much wanted to avoid repeating Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 with wild defensive fire. · 3. Iran has thus far had some success penetrating US and Israeli missile defenses on the far side of the Middle East and considerable success smashing up US bases (and local critical infrastructure) in the Gulf and Iraq with their plentiful arsenal of short-range missiles and cruise drones. There’s nothing really new and game-changing here from the Twelve Day War, as I pointed out earlier. They have a lot of missiles and drones and seem more than happy to contest with us on throw-weight. · 4. As I pointed out earlier, the considerable standoff that US and Israeli aircraft are operating from has wrecked sortie generation. Coalition strikes on Iran throughout the day have been remarkably modest following the initial wave of attacks, likely due to a combination of delay from forced refueling, disruption to remote bases due to Iranian missile attacks, forced use of standoff weapons due to Iranian AD coverage, and Iranian AD attriting incoming salvos. Effects have not been particularly impressive either – I’ve seen a grand total of two strikes with noticeable secondaries. · 4A. As long as the Iranian IADS network remains intact enough to deter Coalition forces from flying “downtown” into Iranian airspace proper, there’s very hard limits on the amount of coercive power that can actually be applied to Iran. We only have so many standoff missiles and don’t have a Russo-Chinese missile printer to call upon. And I remind the reader that our bigger and stronger adversaries (Russia and China) are very invested in ensuring that IADS network remains intact so as to preserve their ally. · 5. There has been no noticeable regime fracture or civil insurrection in Iran. Everyone in the regime seems to have fallen in line immediately and all the demonstrations in Iran through the day have been pro-government. This is to be expected – the Iranians have not only rehearsed this, they’ve had multiple repetitions of executing it over the past year. · 6. Mossad’s attack network in Iran seems to be well and truly dismembered – as I suggested it had been earlier. There have been no reports of commando or insurgent activity in Iran over the course of the day. The Iranian internet is shut down at the moment and nobody seems to be posting online via Starlink. · 7. Oil shock is a real prospect here. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. The Bab al-Mandeb is likely going to be interdicted soon by the Houthis. Iran has already begun limited strikes on oil and gas infrastructure in the region. Air and missile campaigns are inherently indecisive, and Americans are not going to tolerate a weeks or monthslong campaign that spikes oil to $150+/barrel. · 8. Claims are floating around – out of Israel, of course – that this entire affair was a scheme cooked up by Trump and Netanyahu and that the negotiations were always a sham. I suspect that isn’t the case, and that Trump was herded into action by Netanyahu threatening to attack unilaterally after the US “coercive task force” was finally fully assembled in the Gulf. · So how does this end? Well, Trump has been quite explicit that he’s aiming for a short war (probably trying to beat the markets), so I wouldn’t be surprised if this is over relatively quickly. On whose terms… well, that’s another matter altogether.
Pictures today are from The Library of Congress. Jack Delano took the social media picture in October 1940. “The foremen and tractor operators of the Woodman Potato Company at lunch. Near Caribou, Maine” ©Luther Mckinnon 2025 · selah